Just over two years ago the US Navy released video taken in 2004 of what would later be called the “Tic Tac” UFO. The UFO intercepted by the US Navy rekindled interest in the idea of extraterrestrial visits. Most people attempt to consider “close encounters” with extraterrestrials in terms of assuming the UFO represents a highly advanced, interstellar capable, extraterrestrial civilization and working backwards. They assume the UFO is extraterrestrial in origin, represents an advanced civilization, and attempt to assign cause and meaning to it.
I suggest a different approach. Instead of an advanced, interstellar spacefaring society, and working backward (“Why would they explore us?”), I suggest we start with our own, non-advanced, not interstellar spacefaring society, and work forward.
First, we have to ask, what would it take to be interstellar spacefaring? A good first step is harnessing enough power for interstellar travel. That means we have to first assume harnessing power is feasible. For this mental exercise, I will always assume such advanced technology is feasible, after all, the presumption the Tic Tac UFOs are extraterrestrial suggests interstellar travel technologies are feasible.
The first technology is harnessing nuclear fusion in a net-positive way. One has to ask, when will nuclear fusion be harnessed by humanity? In 20 years? 50? 80? With each increase in time, the probability increases. While the joke is nuclear fusion is always 20 years away, 20 years from now might be optimistic. We could assign an 80% chance. In 50 years, perhaps the chance is 90%. By the dawn of the 22nd century, it might be reasonable to say the probability is over 99%.
The next technology to consider is faster than light travel (FTL). The current FTL concept that gets the most traction is the Alcubierre Drive, a concept proposed by physicist Miguel Alcubierre. The Alcubierre Drive is a “space warp drive” concept, which creates a sort of of local wormhole, which is being researched by NASA. The problem with the Alcubierre Drive is it requires impossible amounts of energy. The energy requirements have come down as physicists have refined the concept. Regardless, the power required will likely be significant.
That brings up the best known conceptual energy source more powerful than nuclear fusion: Antimatter. It appears Gene Roddenberry was onto something when he proposed the idea of a “space warp drive” powered by antimatter in his 1960s Star Trek television series.
Let’s assume the same timeline for both harnessing antimatter for power and refining an Alcubierre Drive. Do we believe it is possible in 180 years? How about 280? 380? How about 480? What if we assume an 80% chance for 180 years, 90% for 280, 95% for 380, and 99% for 480? By the dawn of the 26th century, we will likely be an interstellar species.
But even if we assume 280 years for perfection of FTL travel, the dawn of the 24th century, we can extrapolate some ideas.
The first is, any FTL spaceship in the 24th century likely would not require a human crew. The concept of “the singularity”, a point where General Artificial Intelligence passes the Turing test, and where humans will be augmented physically by machines and cognitively computers, will likely occur sometime before the end of the 21st century. Computation will be limited by Moore’s law (which will become a hindrance, rather than an enabler in the future), but new forms of computing, such as quantum computing, are likely to emerge. Nanotechnology is another area ripe for advancement over the 21st century. And biotechnology could impact both computing and nanotechnology.
While Gene Roddenberry got warp drive and antimatter right, he clearly go starship crew sizes very wrong. Instead of crews of 400 (the “Original Series”) or 1,000 (Star Trek - The Next Generation), a crew of a few dozen would be more than adequate. The idea of a holographic doctor (Star Trek Voyager) on board a starship is much more realistic in a 24th century timeline. But realistically, small, fully autonomous starships make more sense.
Keeping the mass small would greatly reduce the power required. Building a starship “as small as possible”, but “as large as necessary” would be the most likely path. This means the size would be dictated by the largest component, as nanotechnology would shrink things like control computers, sensors, recording devices, etc. to very small sizes. Most likely, the FTL drive and antimatter containment system would dictate the size of the spacecraft.
While Star Trek solved the long-distance communication problem with an FTL communications mechanism, this is likely the most difficult problem to solve. More likely FTL spacecraft will be like ancient sailors of old, requiring a return to their home port to tell of their tales. This would be another case for very small FTL spacecraft, which would likely be capable of higher FTL speeds due to their low mass.
Another unknown beyond fusion, Alcubierre Drives, and antimatter is the domain of harnessing gravity. Physicists believe gravity, like light, exists as a wave and a particle (graviton), but gravitons are yet to be discovered, and therefore harnessing them is not possible yet. But assuming it is possible to harness gravity, it could dramatically change slower the light travel. It would it be possible to protect the inside of a spacecraft from acceleration forces. It could allow craft to reflect gravity, to travel like an air hockey puck, changing direction at high speed. Not by being hit, but simply by pointing a graviton beam. This would be especially useful not only for traveling within a solar system, but within a planetary gravity well, that is, landing or flying close to a planet. Instead of fusion based thrusters, needing hydrogen fuel proportional to the gravity of a planet, a lander which harnessed gravity might be able to reflect the planet’s gravity in a way that would make it work at any level of gravity.
I think you can see where I am going with this. A very small robotic spacecraft, capable of flying into a planet’s atmosphere, harnessing gravity so its is capable of moving without the need for visible exhaust or aerodynamic surfaces … it sounds like a Tic Tac UFO.
The Tic Tac UFO makes more sense than the ship from Close Encounters. A mothership is possible, but it would likely be small, and its smaller ships would be even smaller. “Greys” or similar alien species would stay home. “Alien abductions” would have to be done by robots, but honestly, if we assume Star Trek tricorders and medical scanners will be real, why would there any need to abduct a human to learn about their biology?
Do I believe the Tic Tac UFO is an extraterrestrial spacecraft? I don’t know. But I do think in 300 to 500 years, if interstellar travel is possible, human beings will produce small, autonomous interstellar spacecraft, not giant starships of today’s science fiction.
And I think this approach of projecting forward gives a better idea of what to look for than attempting to project a cause onto a phenomenon.
