Sunday, March 10, 2019

Appeal to Modernity

I read a great article by Michael Shellenberger at Forbes, later posted to Quillette, on the subject of renewable energy. In it Shellenberger raises the "Appeal to Nature Fallacy".

I would actually go further than Shellenberger and say the trust in wind and solar energy is a form of neo-paganism, Sun worship, the return of "Ra", as well as wind worship.

That got met thinking. We see the Appeal to Nature fallacy again and again. Distrust of GMOs, to include insane opposition to Golden Rice. Better third world kids go blind than give in to GMOs.

"Organics", to the insane point of organic bananas and oranges, fruits with such thick skins "organic" farming techniques provide no benefit, and despite numerous e coli outbreaks from "organic" bagged salads.

Opposition to the "industrial scale farming", the basis of the Green Revolution, which rendered Paul Ehrlich's fears of mass starvation moot.

Insane anti-vaccination people. Most anti-vaxxers are white, highly educated, high-income, upper middle class individuals. The anti-vax movement is an Appeal to Nature Fallacy based movement. Many of the same people seek homeopathic treatments--faith healing for the faithless.

And then there is this: "Jaguar attacks woman trying to take selfie at zoo". This is what happens when the Appeal to Nature Fallacy conflates "nature" and "natural" with "benign".

We see it with the opposition to fish farming. I recall seeing a placard at a company cafeteria claiming they only served wild caught salmon, and extolling every negative issue with farmed salmon. Then last month in Costco's monthly magazine there was an excellent article on their farmed salmon. This, along with Jordan Peterson's concern about overfishing, changed my mind. I now fully support farmed fishing and will choose farm raised fish.

With all of the concern about bovine flatulence impacting the environment, being a pescetarian might be a good compromise for those who do not want to go lacto ovo vegetarian or full scale vegan.

Those embracing the Appeal to Nature Fallacy used to be a fringe group. Organics were the domain of "health food stores" and hippies in the 1970s. Tiny, convenience store sized health food stores gave way to supermarket sized organic and "natural" foods stores starting in the 1980s. And in 1989 the Alar Apple Scare occurred. Kids eat apples. You are putting your kids in danger letting them eat apples.

Peak Appeal to Nature Fallacy occurred with the Obamas, with Barack lamenting the price of arugula at Whole Foods and Michelle lamenting the struggle to feed her daughters organic food. That latter comment represents an inflection point, where organics went from being considered a luxury product to being considered a child safety product, like a smoke detector, fire-retardant pajamas,  or a car seat. Non-organic food is dangerous. The conclusion is if you are not feeding your children only organic fruits and vegetables, you are harming them. You may as well let them play with gasoline and matches.

The same Appeal to Nature fallacy caused a concerted effort to demonize the timber industry starting about 20 years ago. I am not talking about eco-terrorism like "Earth First!". I am talking about elementary and secondary school curricula that suggested cutting a tree down was immoral. Nowhere was a mature fallen tree rotting in the woods and releasing its carbon dioxide back into the atmosphere compared to the carbon dioxide sequestration board lumber provides when used in construction and furniture. The truth is, fast-growing southern loblolly pines are the single best natural carbon dioxide sink available, and pressure-treated pine is the lowest cost lumber available. The Appeal to Nature says "love nature, love the tree", and associates using the tree as abuse. The truth is farming trees, harvesting them, and turning them into wood products sequesters carbon dioxide and helps the Earth.

Which brings us back to the original point: Shellenberger's advocacy of nuclear power. In the 1950s, modernity was good. We all wanted modernity. We wanted "Atomic Energy". We wanted TV dinners. We wanted fortified breakfast cereal which looks nothing like the source grain it was derived from. We wanted plastics. Walt Disney pushed a Tomorrowland with a TWA Moonliner. His original concept of EPCOT was an appeal to modernity. Werner von Braun along with artist Chesley Bonestell published amazing visions in Colliers. In the late 1970s and early 1980s we wanted microwave ovens, Mister Coffee machines, and VCRs.

Then at some point it all changed. "Steel cut" oatmeal was somehow better than ... oatmeal. Really? How is better? Steel? These used to be called "Irish oats", but somehow "steel-cut" sounds rougher, more austere, like they were hand chopped with an axe. Never mind there is no nutritional difference what so ever between steel-cut and rolled oats. The next thing you will tell me is steel-cut oats have electrolytes.

Yes, Chernobyl was a disaster, but Chernobyl was 1940s technology which failed in 1986. It was not 1986 technology which failed in 1986. That the Soviet Union in the early 1970s built a power plant based on "ancient" technology does not condemn then current state of the art. How about this: The Soviets were pathetic and backwards and do not rate to be considered the standard for deploying nuclear power.

I simply do not understand how we can go forward with a simultaneous Appeal to Nature, an appeal to the past, and a future with everything from AI to artificial wombs to 3D printed organs. It has to collide at some point, or worse, people will move forward with a duality of truth.

So here is where I am at. As a child of the 60s, as an early GenX person, I am re-dedicating myself to modernity. I am doubling down on modernity. I may hate white bread, but I will feed my kids fortified white bread. I will let my kids eat artificially colored foods, and weird breakfast cereals. I will eat farmed fish and industrial farmed vegetables, even those grown with aid of (gasp!) artificial fertilizers and pesticides. I will even eat GMOs. I will leverage modern medicine when I am sick. I will support nuclear power, even in my own backyard. I will vaccinate my kids. I will harvest my timber farm and plant more.

Instead of an Appeal to Nature, I suggest like Walt Disney and Werner von Braun, we need an Appeal to Modernity. I want for my kids the same belief that anything was possible ... no ... everything was possible, that I grew up with.

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